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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ian Heinisch won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1405

Elo1457

Ian HeinischvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Saturday, June 6, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ian Heinisch won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:14

Style matchupIan Heinisch: Well-roundedvsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ian Heinisch wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Ian Heinisch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Heinisch at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ian Heinisch enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Ian Heinisch has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).
Gerald Meerschaert has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ian Heinisch

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1405

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ian HeinischL4 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio Carlos Junior · May 19

vs Derek Brunson · Aug 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Dec 19

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Feb 21

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jul 21

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ian HeinischMetricGerald Meerschaert

3.25

Strikes / min

2.95

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

59%

Strike defense

53%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.70

59%

Takedown defense

40%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ian HeinischGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ian Heinisch(7 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.0|Blue +52.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ian HeinischTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

77% acc · 85%

Head

13% acc · 33%

100% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 67%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

100% acc · 25%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 75%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ian Heinisch rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Ian Heinisch edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 25

Sig Strikes

3 / 10

80%

Sig Str %

30%

22 / 27

Total Strikes

3 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	3 / 10	3 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Ian Heinisch	20 / 25	22 / 27	0 / 0	0

Ian Heinisch

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25