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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Martin Buday won · U-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1462

Martin BudayvsMarcus BuchechaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Saturday, July 26, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Martin Buday won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMartin Buday: Pressure fightervsMarcus Buchecha: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Martin Buday wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Martin Buday wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Martin Buday at +210 American odds

+$210 profit

$310 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Buday has 93pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Martin Buday

Red Corner

Marcus Buchecha

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1527

Elo

1462

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Martin BudayW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 23

SUBvs Josh Parisian · Aug 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Dec 23

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 24

vs Uran Satybaldiev · Apr 25

latest

Marcus Buchecha

oldest →

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 25

KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Martin BudayMetricMarcus Buchecha

4.39

Strikes / min

1.59

4.49

Strikes absorbed / min

2.15

55%

Strike defense

50%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

2.02

93%

Takedown defense

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Martin BudayMarcus Buchecha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Martin Buday(8 fights)Marcus Buchecha(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +64.8|Blue -64.8

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Martin BudayTargetMarcus Buchecha

By target zone

41% acc · 73%

Head

30% acc · 58%

100% acc · 12%

Body

71% acc · 42%

86% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

49% acc · 88%

Distance

32% acc · 67%

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

75% acc · 25%

17% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Martin Buday rounds

even

Marcus Buchecha rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:43

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:50

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:01Control

Round 3Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:18

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 86

Sig Strikes

24 / 60

53.7%

Sig Str %

34%

92 / 150

Total Strikes

80 / 140

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 11

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:51

Ctrl Time

5:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcus Buchecha	19 / 42	21 / 46	0 / 6
1	Martin Buday	19 / 44	38 / 66	0 / 0
2	Marcus Buchecha	3 / 8	45 / 62	1 / 1
2	Martin Buday	9 / 12	23 / 30	0 / 0
3	Marcus Buchecha	2 / 10	14 / 32	0 / 4
3	Martin Buday	13 / 30	31 / 54	0 / 0

Martin Buday

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Marcus Buchecha

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3