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Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Lineker won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1492
John Lineker
Elo1353

John LinekervsJose MariaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · Saturday, August 3, 2013Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

John Lineker won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:03

Style matchupJohn Lineker: Pressure fightervsJose Maria: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: John Lineker wins(59.6%)

Actual result: John Lineker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Lineker at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Lineker is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jose Maria has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • John Lineker has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Lineker
Red Corner
VS
Jose Maria
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+355
(22%)
1492
Elo
1353
36
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'5"
170.18 cm
Reach
165 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Lineker
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Oct 16
L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16
W
vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19
latest
Jose Maria
oldest →
L
KOvs Dustin Ortiz · Nov 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John LinekerMetricJose Maria
5.36
Strikes / min
3.20
4.27
Strikes absorbed / min
3.98
56%
Strike defense
52%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
2.32
67%
Takedown defense
33%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.09Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1500Strikes69.7 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.6 vs 0.0
John LinekerJose Maria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
John Lineker(10 fights)Jose Maria(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.0|Blue -139.0
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -46.2|Blue +46.2
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John LinekerTargetJose Maria

By target zone

17
36% acc · 77%
Head
9
53% acc · 47%
5
45% acc · 23%
Body
3
33% acc · 16%
0
Leg
7
70% acc · 37%

By position

7
24% acc · 32%
Distance
13
45% acc · 68%
5
63% acc · 23%
Clinch
4
80% acc · 21%
10
48% acc · 45%
Ground
2
100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
John Lineker rounds
1
even
0
Jose Maria rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns2
Control0:32
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 2John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:21
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
22 / 58
Sig Strikes
19 / 36
40.5%
Sig Str %
47%
29 / 65
Total Strikes
25 / 44
2 / 2
TDs
1 / 5
100%
TD %
12.5%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:53
Ctrl Time
0:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jose Maria16 / 2822 / 361 / 41
1John Lineker12 / 3818 / 442 / 20
2Jose Maria3 / 83 / 80 / 10
2John Lineker10 / 2011 / 210 / 00

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16

Jose Maria

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach—
Fights2