Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Willis enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Curtis Blaydes
oldest →L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25L
DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26 Justin WillisW4 streak
oldest →W
vs James Mulheron · Jul 17W
KOvs Allen Crowder · Dec 17W
vs Chase Sherman · Apr 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Curtis BlaydesMetricJustin Willis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.42evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Curtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Justin Willis(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +3.9|Blue -3.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Curtis BlaydesTargetJustin Willis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns4
Control4:25
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control4:39
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Curtis Blaydes edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control2:40
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
