Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Danny Castillo has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nik LentzL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18W
vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19L
vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21 Danny CastilloL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nik LentzMetricDanny Castillo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nik LentzDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nik Lentz(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +39.0|Blue -39.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nik LentzTargetDanny Castillo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:29
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:57Control
Round 2Nik Lentz edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control0:33
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:45Control
Round 3Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control0:33
24Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:51Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
