Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gabriel Gonzaga has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gabriel Gonzaga
oldest →L
vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14L
KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15W
vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16 Ben Rothwell
oldest →W
KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20L
vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20W
SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gabriel GonzagaMetricBen Rothwell
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gabriel GonzagaBen Rothwell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)Ben Rothwell(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -3.6|Blue +3.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gabriel GonzagaTargetBen Rothwell
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Gabriel Gonzaga edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns3
Control2:17
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
