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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Kingsbury won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1353

Elo1351

Kyle KingsburyvsRicardo RomeroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · Saturday, February 5, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Kingsbury won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:21

Style matchupKyle Kingsbury: WrestlervsRicardo Romero: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Kyle Kingsbury wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Kyle Kingsbury wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Kingsbury at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ricardo Romero has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Kingsbury

Red Corner

Ricardo Romero

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1353

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle KingsburyL4 streak

oldest →

vs Fabio Maldonado · Jun 11

vs Stephan Bonnar · Nov 11

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · May 12

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 12

vs Patrick Cummins · Jul 14

latest

Ricardo Romero

oldest →

SUBvs Seth Petruzelli · Jul 10

KOvs James Te Huna · Sep 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle KingsburyMetricRicardo Romero

2.97

Strikes / min

2.17

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

4.77

51%

Strike defense

46%

2.64

TDs / 15 min

1.63

52%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

3.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-2.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle KingsburyRicardo Romero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Kingsbury(7 fights)Ricardo Romero(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -74.0|Blue +74.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle KingsburyTargetRicardo Romero

By target zone

56% acc · 56%

Head

33% acc · 100%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 22%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

83% acc · 56%

Clinch

50% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Kingsbury rounds

even

Ricardo Romero rounds

Round 1Kyle Kingsbury edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 13

Sig Strikes

1 / 3

69%

Sig Str %

33%

12 / 16

Total Strikes

1 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ricardo Romero	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Kyle Kingsbury	9 / 13	12 / 16	0 / 0	0

Kyle Kingsbury

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Ricardo Romero

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3