Middleweight

3 Rounds

John Phillips won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1434

Elo1390

Alen AmedovskivsJohn PhillipsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Saturday, September 28, 2019Copenhagen, Denmark

Official fight result

John Phillips won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:17

Model Prediction: John Phillips wins(52.3%)

Actual result: John Phillips wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Phillips at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alen Amedovski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
John Phillips enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
John Phillips is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Alen Amedovski has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors John Phillips (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alen Amedovski

Red Corner

John Phillips

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1434

Elo

1390

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alen AmedovskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Apr 19

SUBvs Joseph Holmes · May 22

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Sep 22

latest

John PhillipsL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Byrd · Mar 18

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Nov 18

vs Jack Marshman · Mar 19

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Jul 20

vs Junyong Park · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alen AmedovskiMetricJohn Phillips

0.99

Strikes / min

1.72

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

46%

Strike defense

49%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.86evenly matched on net striking-2.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alen AmedovskiJohn Phillips

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alen Amedovski(4 fights)John Phillips(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.4|Blue -43.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alen AmedovskiTargetJohn Phillips

By target zone

18% acc · 100%

Head

57% acc · 80%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

18% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 60%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alen Amedovski rounds

even

John Phillips rounds

Round 1John Phillips edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 11

Sig Strikes

5 / 8

18%

Sig Str %

62%

2 / 11

Total Strikes

5 / 8

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Phillips	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
1	Alen Amedovski	2 / 11	2 / 11	0 / 0	0

Alen Amedovski

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

John Phillips

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6