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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Maheshate won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1486

Elo1534

MaheshatevsSteve GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Saturday, June 11, 2022Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Maheshate won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:14

Style matchupMaheshate: StrikervsSteve Garcia: Elusive striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Maheshate wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Garcia at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maheshate is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Steve Garcia has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Steve Garcia has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Steve Garcia (53.5%).
Steve Garcia has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Maheshate

Red Corner

Steve Garcia

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1486

Elo

1534

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

MaheshateL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rafa Garcia · Dec 22

KOvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 23

vs Gabriel Benitez · Apr 24

vs Nikolas Motta · Nov 24

vs Gauge Young · Aug 25

latest

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

MaheshateMetricSteve Garcia

3.96

Strikes / min

5.39

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

51%

Strike defense

59%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.86

47%

Takedown defense

88%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.00Δ 5.27 — meaningful gap+3.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

MaheshateSteve Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maheshate(6 fights)Steve Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

MaheshateTargetSteve Garcia

By target zone

75% acc · 86%

Head

47% acc · 100%

50% acc · 14%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

70% acc · 100%

Distance

27% acc · 57%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maheshate rounds

even

Steve Garcia rounds

Round 1Maheshate edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns2

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 10

Sig Strikes

7 / 19

70%

Sig Str %

36%

7 / 10

Total Strikes

9 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steve Garcia	7 / 19	9 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Maheshate	7 / 10	7 / 10	0 / 0	0

Maheshate

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10