Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tim Elliott has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22 Tim Elliott
oldest →W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25L
DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricTim Elliott
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.51
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Louis SmolkaTim Elliott
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -75.2|Blue +75.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -27.0|Blue +27.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Louis SmolkaTargetTim Elliott
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:46
25Sig. strikes
5Takedowns
3:02Control
Round 2Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:51
13Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:48Control
Round 3Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control1:03
19Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
2:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
