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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Mateusz Gamrot won · U-DEC R5

Elo1531

Elo1525

Arman TsarukyanvsMateusz GamrotUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Saturday, June 25, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Gamrot won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupArman Tsarukyan: WrestlervsMateusz Gamrot: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Mateusz Gamrot wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arman Tsarukyan at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Gamrot (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Arman Tsarukyan

Red Corner

Mateusz Gamrot

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1531

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arman TsarukyanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Damir Ismagulov · Dec 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Dec 23

vs Charles Oliveira · Apr 24

SUBvs Dan Hooker · Nov 25

latest

Mateusz Gamrot

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24

vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arman TsarukyanMetricMateusz Gamrot

3.85

Strikes / min

3.21

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

54%

Strike defense

60%

3.26

TDs / 15 min

5.22

75%

Takedown defense

83%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.05Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arman TsarukyanMateusz Gamrot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.3|Blue -6.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arman TsarukyanTargetMateusz Gamrot

By target zone

24% acc · 45%

Head

56% acc · 84%

81% acc · 41%

Body

75% acc · 11%

76% acc · 14%

Leg

80% acc · 5%

By position

37% acc · 93%

Distance

57% acc · 90%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 5%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arman Tsarukyan rounds

even

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

Round 1Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:46

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 4Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:41Control

0Knockdowns

Round 5Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:29

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:23Control

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 247

Sig Strikes

81 / 138

38.6%

Sig Str %

59%

110 / 264

Total Strikes

108 / 166

1 / 8

TDs

6 / 21

8.3%

TD %

22.6%

Sub Att

Rev

1:39

Ctrl Time

4:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Arman Tsarukyan	15 / 37	19 / 41	1 / 3
1	Mateusz Gamrot	10 / 19	11 / 20	0 / 4
2	Mateusz Gamrot	18 / 38	21 / 41	0 / 1
2	Arman Tsarukyan	19 / 64	21 / 68	0 / 2
3	Mateusz Gamrot	20 / 33	30 / 43	2 / 6
3	Arman Tsarukyan	22 / 45	23 / 46	0 / 2
4	Arman Tsarukyan	16 / 47	18 / 49	0 / 0
4	Mateusz Gamrot	13 / 23	18 / 29	2 / 5
5	Mateusz Gamrot	20 / 25	28 / 33	2 / 5
5	Arman Tsarukyan	23 / 54	29 / 60	0 / 1

Arman Tsarukyan

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12