Welterweight

3 Rounds

Miguel Baeza won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Elo1377

Miguel BaezavsHector AldanaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Miguel Baeza won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:32

Model Prediction: Miguel Baeza wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Miguel Baeza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miguel Baeza at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Miguel Baeza is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Hector Aldana has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Hector Aldana has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Miguel Baeza has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Miguel Baeza

Red Corner

Hector Aldana

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1493

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miguel BaezaL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Takashi Sato · Nov 20

vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 21

KOvs Khaos Williams · Nov 21

KOvs Andre Fialho · Apr 22

vs Punahele Soriano · Jun 24

latest

Hector AldanaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Song Kenan · Jun 18

vs Laureano Staropoli · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miguel BaezaMetricHector Aldana

4.09

Strikes / min

3.59

5.92

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

46%

Strike defense

59%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.93

54%

Takedown defense

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.83evenly matched on net striking-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miguel BaezaHector Aldana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miguel Baeza(7 fights)Hector Aldana(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +116.0|Blue -116.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +48.7|Blue -48.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miguel BaezaTargetHector Aldana

By target zone

42% acc · 46%

Head

7% acc · 25%

43% acc · 9%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 46%

Leg

75% acc · 75%

By position

57% acc · 83%

Distance

19% acc · 100%

Clinch

60% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miguel Baeza rounds

even

Hector Aldana rounds

Round 1Miguel Baeza edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Miguel Baeza edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 61

Sig Strikes

8 / 42

56.5%

Sig Str %

20%

35 / 61

Total Strikes

8 / 42

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Hector Aldana	4 / 27	4 / 27	0 / 0
1	Miguel Baeza	14 / 28	14 / 28	1 / 1
2	Hector Aldana	4 / 15	4 / 15	0 / 0
2	Miguel Baeza	21 / 33	21 / 33	0 / 0

Miguel Baeza

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Hector Aldana

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3