Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vagner Rocha enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Cody McKenzie threatens submissions; Vagner Rocha has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Vagner Rocha threatens submissions; Cody McKenzie has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Cody McKenzie has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Vagner Rocha has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Cody McKenzie (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cody McKenzie
oldest →L
SUBvs Yves Edwards · Jan 11W
SUBvs Marcus LeVesseur · May 12L
KOvs Chad Mendes · Jul 12W
vs Leonard Garcia · Apr 13 Vagner RochaL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Donald Cerrone · Jun 11L
KOvs Jonathan Brookins · Feb 12L
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Nov 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cody McKenzieMetricVagner Rocha
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.76Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-1.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Cody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cody McKenzie(7 fights)Vagner Rocha(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +136.5|Blue -136.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Cody McKenzieTargetVagner Rocha
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:31
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:21Control
Round 2Vagner Rocha edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:01
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
