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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Josh Parisian won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1426

Josh ParisianvsAlan BaudotUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Saturday, June 25, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Parisian won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:04

Style matchupJosh Parisian: Pressure fightervsAlan Baudot: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Josh Parisian wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Josh Parisian wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Parisian at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Parisian enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alan Baudot enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Parisian is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alan Baudot has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Alan Baudot has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Parisian

Red Corner

Alan Baudot

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1491

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh ParisianL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roque Martinez · Jun 21

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Dec 21

vs Jamal Pogues · Feb 23

SUBvs Martin Buday · Aug 23

KOvs Robelis Despaigne · Mar 24

latest

Alan BaudotL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Oct 20

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · Jul 21

vs Parker Porter · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh ParisianMetricAlan Baudot

4.55

Strikes / min

5.36

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.82

41%

Strike defense

46%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.00

46%

Takedown defense

62%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh ParisianAlan Baudot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Parisian(7 fights)Alan Baudot(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +64.6|Blue -64.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh ParisianTargetAlan Baudot

By target zone

51% acc · 64%

Head

58% acc · 69%

100% acc · 26%

Body

89% acc · 16%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

56% acc · 52%

Distance

49% acc · 47%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

72% acc · 43%

Ground

88% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Parisian rounds

even

Alan Baudot rounds

Round 1Alan Baudot edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:48

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:41Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Josh Parisian edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:21

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 68

Sig Strikes

49 / 75

61%

Sig Str %

68%

102 / 156

Total Strikes

56 / 82

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:09

Ctrl Time

1:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alan Baudot	38 / 60	45 / 67	0 / 0
1	Josh Parisian	25 / 41	38 / 62	1 / 2
2	Alan Baudot	11 / 15	11 / 15	0 / 0
2	Josh Parisian	17 / 27	64 / 94	2 / 2

Josh Parisian

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Alan Baudot

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4