Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Patrick Cummins has lost 71% of fights by KO.
- Rogerio Nogueira has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20 Patrick CumminsL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rogerio NogueiraMetricPatrick Cummins
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.91
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rogerio NogueiraPatrick Cummins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +13.9|Blue -13.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rogerio NogueiraTargetPatrick Cummins
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rogerio Nogueira edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:12
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
