Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jacare Souza enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jacare Souza has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Chris Weidman has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Chris Weidman has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris Weidman
oldest →W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24 Jacare SouzaL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · May 18L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris WeidmanMetricJacare Souza
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris WeidmanJacare Souza
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Weidman(10 fights)Jacare Souza(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +94.1|Blue -94.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +294.0|Blue -294.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris WeidmanTargetJacare Souza
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:43
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jacare Souza edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
