Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Justin Gaethje has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Justin Gaethje has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26 Justin GaethjeW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles OliveiraMetricJustin Gaethje
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Charles OliveiraJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -19.3|Blue +19.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Charles OliveiraTargetJustin Gaethje
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:39
Knockdowns1
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
