Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kamaru Usman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Kamaru Usman has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kamaru UsmanL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26 Joaquin Buckley
oldest →W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24W
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24W
KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24L
DECvs Sean Brady · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kamaru UsmanMetricJoaquin Buckley
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.49evenly matched on net striking+0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kamaru UsmanJoaquin Buckley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -26.5|Blue +26.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +420.0|Blue -420.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kamaru UsmanTargetJoaquin Buckley
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control4:25
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control3:08
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control2:35
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control2:18
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:31
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
