Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stevie Ray has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alan Patrick has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alan PatrickL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Damien Brown · Mar 16W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18L
KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18L
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22 Stevie Ray
oldest →L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17L
vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18W
vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18L
KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19W
vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alan PatrickMetricStevie Ray
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.13Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alan PatrickStevie Ray
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alan Patrick(9 fights)Stevie Ray(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -67.1|Blue +67.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -147.0|Blue +147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alan PatrickTargetStevie Ray
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alan Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns3
Control4:29
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 2Alan Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control3:22
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Round 3Alan Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control4:21
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
