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Strawweight

3 Rounds

Ketlen Souza won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1523

Elo1477

Ketlen SouzavsAriane CarnelossiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Saturday, June 6, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Ketlen Souza won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:34

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Ariane Carnelossi

Model Prediction: Ketlen Souza wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Ketlen Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ketlen Souza has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ketlen Souza

Red Corner

Ariane Carnelossi

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1523

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'2"

160.02 cm

Reach

154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ketlen Souza

oldest →

vs Marnic Mann · Apr 24

SUBvs Yazmin Jauregui · Sep 24

vs Angela Hill · Feb 25

vs Piera Rodriguez · Aug 25

vs Bruna Brasil · Feb 26

latest

Ariane Carnelossi

oldest →

KOvs Na Liang · Apr 21

SUBvs Istela Nunes · Oct 21

vs Loopy Godinez · May 22

vs Piera Rodriguez · May 24

SUBvs Talita Alencar · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ketlen SouzaMetricAriane Carnelossi

4.01

Strikes / min

2.63

3.86

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

52%

Strike defense

44%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

1.08

53%

Takedown defense

22%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-1.98

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ketlen Souza(7 fights)Ariane Carnelossi(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.2|Blue -46.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ketlen SouzaTargetAriane Carnelossi

By target zone

73% acc · 85%

Head

33% acc · 50%

Body

38% acc · 38%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

75% acc · 92%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ketlen Souza rounds

even

Ariane Carnelossi rounds

Round 1Ketlen Souza edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 17

Sig Strikes

8 / 21

76%

Sig Str %

38%

13 / 17

Total Strikes

8 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ariane Carnelossi	8 / 21	8 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Ketlen Souza	13 / 17	13 / 17	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 37% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Ketlen Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7

Ariane Carnelossi

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights7