Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Andrew Craig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17 Andrew CraigL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13L
SUBvs Luke Barnatt · Oct 13L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14L
KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricAndrew Craig
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.62Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael NatalAndrew Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +6.1|Blue -6.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +27.0|Blue -27.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael NatalTargetAndrew Craig
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns2
Control1:30
Knockdowns2
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:49Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
