← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Prates won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1480

Elo1567

Leon EdwardsvsCarlos PratesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Prates won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:28

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsCarlos Prates: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Carlos Prates wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Carlos Prates wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Prates at -154 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (54.1%).
Carlos Prates has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Carlos Prates

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-154

(61%)

1480

Elo

1567

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Aug 22

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

latest

Carlos PratesW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Li Jingliang · Aug 24

KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24

vs Ian Machado Garry · Apr 25

KOvs Geoff Neal · Aug 25

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricCarlos Prates

2.60

Strikes / min

4.41

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.30

52%

Strike defense

47%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

0.18

63%

Takedown defense

77%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsCarlos Prates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Carlos Prates(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -87.7|Blue +87.7

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetCarlos Prates

By target zone

50% acc · 33%

Head

50% acc · 38%

Body

67% acc · 10%

89% acc · 67%

Leg

85% acc · 52%

By position

69% acc · 92%

Distance

63% acc · 90%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Carlos Prates rounds

Round 1Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control3:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Carlos Prates edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 17

Sig Strikes

21 / 32

70.5%

Sig Str %

66%

25 / 30

Total Strikes

24 / 35

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Prates	9 / 17	12 / 20	0 / 0
1	Leon Edwards	7 / 10	20 / 23	2 / 3
2	Carlos Prates	12 / 15	12 / 15	0 / 0
2	Leon Edwards	5 / 7	5 / 7	0 / 0

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Carlos Prates

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7