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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafa Garcia won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1533

Elo1483

Rafa GarciavsJared GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Rafa Garcia won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:27

Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsJared Gordon: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafa Garcia at +152 American odds

+$152 profit

$252 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rafa Garcia

Red Corner

Jared Gordon

Blue Corner

+152

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-180

(64%)

1533

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafa GarciaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Maheshate · Dec 22

vs Clay Guida · Apr 23

KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24

vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

Jared Gordon

oldest →

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 22

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafa GarciaMetricJared Gordon

4.28

Strikes / min

5.57

4.42

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

61%

Strike defense

55%

3.22

TDs / 15 min

1.91

77%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.14Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafa GarciaJared Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +50.2|Blue -50.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafa GarciaTargetJared Gordon

By target zone

51% acc · 81%

Head

32% acc · 85%

100% acc · 8%

Body

62% acc · 12%

91% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

51% acc · 77%

Distance

35% acc · 100%

91% acc · 11%

Clinch

79% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafa Garcia rounds

even

Jared Gordon rounds

Round 1Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:24

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control1:12

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

91 / 162

Sig Strikes

65 / 186

55.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

107 / 179

Total Strikes

80 / 201

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 3

75%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:01

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jared Gordon	23 / 64	24 / 65	0 / 1	0
1	Rafa Garcia	22 / 41	23 / 42	1 / 1	0
2	Jared Gordon	31 / 86	45 / 100	1 / 1	0
2	Rafa Garcia	33 / 61	48 / 77	1 / 2	1
3	Jared Gordon	11 / 36	11 / 36	0 / 1	0
3	Rafa Garcia	36 / 60	36 / 60	0 / 0	1

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17