Featherweight

3 Rounds

Christian Rodriguez won · Submission R1

Elo1472

Elo1521

Hyder AmilvsChristian RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Saturday, June 20, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Christian Rodriguez won

Submission · Round 1 · 3:43

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Hyder Amil

Style matchupHyder Amil: Pressure fightervsChristian Rodriguez: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Hyder Amil wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Christian Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Tale of the Tape

Hyder Amil

Red Corner

Christian Rodriguez

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1472

Elo

1521

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hyder AmilL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Fernie Garcia · Feb 24

KOvs JeongYeong Lee · Jul 24

vs William Gomis · Mar 25

KOvs Jose Delgado · Jun 25

vs Jamall Emmers · Nov 25

latest

Christian RodriguezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Isaac Dulgarian · Mar 24

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24

vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25

vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25

vs Andre Fili · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hyder AmilMetricChristian Rodriguez

5.81

Strikes / min

3.85

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

2.85

51%

Strike defense

56%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

1.75

65%

Takedown defense

67%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.86evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hyder Amil(6 fights)Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hyder AmilTargetChristian Rodriguez

By target zone

37% acc · 48%

Head

49% acc · 85%

88% acc · 30%

Body

100% acc · 15%

50% acc · 22%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 83%

Distance

53% acc · 90%

67% acc · 17%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hyder Amil rounds

even

Christian Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 48

Sig Strikes

20 / 38

47%

Sig Str %

52%

23 / 48

Total Strikes

23 / 43

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Rodriguez	20 / 38	23 / 43	1 / 3	1
1	Hyder Amil	23 / 48	23 / 48	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 60% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Hyder Amil

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10