Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gunnar Nelson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25 Jorge SantiagoL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Brian Stann · May 11 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricJorge Santiago
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.29evenly matched on net striking-0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gunnar NelsonJorge Santiago
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Jorge Santiago(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +144.6|Blue -144.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -357.0|Blue +357.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gunnar NelsonTargetJorge Santiago
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control0:55
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Gunnar Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control4:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jorge Santiago edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:43
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
