Featherweight

3 Rounds

Joanderson Brito won · U-DEC R3

Elo1538

Elo1484

Joanderson BritovsIsaac ThomsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Saturday, December 13, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joanderson Brito won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoanderson Brito: WrestlervsIsaac Thomson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Joanderson Brito wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Joanderson Brito wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanderson Brito at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Joanderson Brito

Red Corner

Isaac Thomson

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1538

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

N/A

5'8"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanderson Brito

oldest →

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Nov 23

KOvs Jack Shore · May 24

vs William Gomis · Sep 24

vs Pat Sabatini · Apr 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 26

latest

Isaac ThomsonNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanderson BritoMetricIsaac Thomson

2.43

Strikes / min

1.40

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.20

44%

Strike defense

42%

3.38

TDs / 15 min

4.00

47%

Takedown defense

33%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joanderson BritoIsaac Thomson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joanderson Brito(10 fights)Isaac Thomson(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.3|Blue -54.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanderson BritoTargetIsaac Thomson

By target zone

44% acc · 48%

Head

42% acc · 67%

70% acc · 21%

Body

60% acc · 29%

91% acc · 30%

Leg

25% acc · 5%

By position

53% acc · 58%

Distance

38% acc · 67%

70% acc · 21%

Clinch

75% acc · 29%

64% acc · 21%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joanderson Brito rounds

even

Isaac Thomson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns3

Control1:29

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:23Control

Round 2Joanderson Brito edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:59

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Joanderson Brito edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns4

Control3:31

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 57

Sig Strikes

21 / 47

57.7%

Sig Str %

47%

66 / 93

Total Strikes

127 / 164

8 / 12

TDs

4 / 5

69%

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

7:59

Ctrl Time

3:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Isaac Thomson	6 / 10	26 / 34	2 / 2	0
1	Joanderson Brito	4 / 7	16 / 19	3 / 3	0
2	Isaac Thomson	7 / 16	27 / 39	2 / 3	0
2	Joanderson Brito	13 / 21	32 / 43	1 / 2	2
3	Isaac Thomson	8 / 21	74 / 91	0 / 0	0
3	Joanderson Brito	16 / 29	18 / 31	4 / 7	0

Joanderson Brito

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Isaac Thomson

Stance—

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1