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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Amanda Nunes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1501
Amanda Nunes
Elo1352

Amanda NunesvsSheila GaffUFC Prediction Result

UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · Saturday, August 3, 2013Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:08

Model Prediction: Sheila Gaff wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sheila Gaff at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Amanda Nunes has 29pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Amanda Nunes has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Amanda Nunes has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes
Red Corner
VS
Sheila Gaff
Blue Corner
-195
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1501
Elo
1352
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'5"
175.26 cm
Reach
157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda NunesW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20
W
SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21
L
SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21
W
vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22
W
vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23
latest
Sheila Gaff
oldest →
L
KOvs Sara McMann · Apr 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda NunesMetricSheila Gaff
4.55
Strikes / min
1.60
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
2.89
57%
Strike defense
28%
2.73
TDs / 15 min
0.00
82%
Takedown defense
20%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.93Δ 3.22 — meaningful gap-1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1484Strikes— vs 7.0Takedowns— vs 0.0Sub Atts— vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Amanda NunesSheila Gaff

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Amanda Nunes(10 fights)Sheila Gaff(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +149.0|Blue -149.0
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda NunesTargetSheila Gaff

By target zone

9
64% acc · 90%
Head
1
25% acc · 33%
1
50% acc · 10%
Body
2
67% acc · 67%
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

1
33% acc · 10%
Distance
1
20% acc · 33%
0
Clinch
2
67% acc · 67%
9
69% acc · 90%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Amanda Nunes rounds
0
even
0
Sheila Gaff rounds
Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control1:37
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 16
Sig Strikes
3 / 8
62%
Sig Str %
37%
16 / 25
Total Strikes
5 / 10
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
66%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:37
Ctrl Time
0:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sheila Gaff3 / 85 / 100 / 00
1Amanda Nunes10 / 1616 / 252 / 30

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights18

Sheila Gaff

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach—
Fights2