Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renan Barao enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Renan Barao has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
- Renan Barao has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Renan BaraoL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Phillipe Nover · Sep 16L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17L
KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19 Brian KelleherL4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22L
SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Renan BaraoMetricBrian Kelleher
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.12Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap-1.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Renan BaraoBrian Kelleher
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Renan Barao(10 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -111.0|Blue +111.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.8|Blue -2.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Renan BaraoTargetBrian Kelleher
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Renan Barao edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control1:05
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:24Control
Round 2Renan Barao edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control1:05
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:28Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes62
Takedowns0
Control0:03
61Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:31Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
