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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Colby Covington won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1470

Colby CovingtonvsMax GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Saturday, August 20, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:18

Style matchupColby Covington: WrestlervsMax Griffin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(81.8%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Max Griffin has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Colby Covington

Red Corner

Max Griffin

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1491

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Max GriffinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colby CovingtonMetricMax Griffin

3.81

Strikes / min

3.70

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.69

54%

Strike defense

58%

3.64

TDs / 15 min

1.44

68%

Takedown defense

69%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colby CovingtonMax Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colby Covington(10 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.8|Blue -20.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colby CovingtonTargetMax Griffin

By target zone

50% acc · 73%

Head

29% acc · 69%

86% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

50% acc · 54%

Distance

34% acc · 85%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

65% acc · 42%

Ground

50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colby Covington rounds

even

Max Griffin rounds

Round 1Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control4:01

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control4:20

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:47

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 46

Sig Strikes

13 / 35

58.7%

Sig Str %

36.3%

161 / 216

Total Strikes

33 / 58

6 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

63.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:08

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Max Griffin	8 / 18	21 / 34	0 / 0	1
1	Colby Covington	12 / 20	32 / 45	2 / 3	0
2	Max Griffin	3 / 12	8 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Colby Covington	10 / 20	72 / 100	3 / 4	0
3	Max Griffin	2 / 5	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Colby Covington	4 / 6	57 / 71	1 / 2	0

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19