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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Al Iaquinta won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1411

Ryan CouturevsAl IaquintaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · Saturday, August 31, 2013Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Al Iaquinta won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRyan Couture: Submission grapplervsAl Iaquinta: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Ryan Couture wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Al Iaquinta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Couture at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Al Iaquinta has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Couture

Red Corner

Al Iaquinta

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1352

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan Couture

oldest →

KOvs Ross Pearson · Apr 13

latest

Al IaquintaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan CoutureMetricAl Iaquinta

3.54

Strikes / min

4.06

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

54%

Strike defense

61%

1.55

TDs / 15 min

0.63

46%

Takedown defense

74%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan CoutureAl Iaquinta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Couture(2 fights)Al Iaquinta(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.7|Blue +58.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -309.0|Blue +309.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan CoutureTargetAl Iaquinta

By target zone

16% acc · 44%

Head

37% acc · 69%

67% acc · 27%

Body

79% acc · 24%

87% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

27% acc · 84%

Distance

41% acc · 78%

54% acc · 16%

Clinch

65% acc · 16%

Ground

71% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Couture rounds

even

Al Iaquinta rounds

Round 1Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:07

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:24

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:37

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 155

Sig Strikes

80 / 177

28.7%

Sig Str %

44%

47 / 158

Total Strikes

86 / 183

0 / 6

TDs

4 / 4

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Al Iaquinta	29 / 62	30 / 63	2 / 2
1	Ryan Couture	17 / 53	17 / 53	0 / 0
2	Al Iaquinta	19 / 53	20 / 54	1 / 1
2	Ryan Couture	12 / 47	13 / 48	0 / 3
3	Al Iaquinta	32 / 62	36 / 66	1 / 1
3	Ryan Couture	16 / 55	17 / 57	0 / 3

Ryan Couture

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15