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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gregory Rodrigues won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1481

Elo1548

Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Julian MarquezvsGregory RodriguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Gregory Rodrigues won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:18

Style matchupJulian Marquez: Pressure fightervsGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Gregory Rodrigues wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregory Rodrigues at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julian Marquez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Gregory Rodrigues is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Julian Marquez has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Gregory Rodrigues has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Julian Marquez

Red Corner

Gregory Rodrigues

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1481

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian MarquezL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Feb 21

SUBvs Sam Alvey · Apr 21

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 23

KOvs Zachary Reese · Jun 24

KOvs Cody Brundage · Mar 25

latest

Gregory RodriguesW3 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Jun 25

vs Roman Kopylov · Nov 25

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian MarquezMetricGregory Rodrigues

5.06

Strikes / min

5.53

5.35

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

50%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.90

54%

Takedown defense

75%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julian MarquezGregory Rodrigues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Marquez(8 fights)Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -66.9|Blue +66.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +322.0|Blue -322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian MarquezTargetGregory Rodrigues

By target zone

22% acc · 62%

Head

69% acc · 94%

0% acc

Body

60% acc · 6%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 67%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

76% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Marquez rounds

even

Gregory Rodrigues rounds

Round 1Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

3Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 42

Sig Strikes

49 / 72

30%

Sig Str %

68%

13 / 42

Total Strikes

50 / 74

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gregory Rodrigues	49 / 72	50 / 74	0 / 0	0
1	Julian Marquez	13 / 42	13 / 42	0 / 0	0

Julian Marquez

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13