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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cesar Almeida won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1472
Elo1487
Cesar Almeida editorial illustration

Dylan BudkavsCesar AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Saturday, April 6, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cesar Almeida won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:13

Model Prediction: Cesar Almeida wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Cesar Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cesar Almeida at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cesar Almeida is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Dylan Budka has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Dylan Budka has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Dylan Budka (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Dylan Budka
Red Corner
VS
Cesar Almeida
Blue Corner
-166
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1472
Elo
1487
26
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dylan BudkaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Andre Petroski · Sep 24
L
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Feb 25
latest
Cesar AlmeidaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Roman Kopylov · Jun 24
W
vs Ihor Potieria · Oct 24
W
KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 25
L
vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk · Dec 25
L
KOvs Damian Pinas · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dylan BudkaMetricCesar Almeida
1.06
Strikes / min
3.46
1.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.03
42%
Strike defense
46%
1.93
TDs / 15 min
0.00
76%
Takedown defense
52%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.74Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes1.0 vs 4.3Takedowns3.4 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Dylan BudkaCesar Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601480150015201540← oldermost recent →
Dylan Budka(3 fights)Cesar Almeida(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -15.2|Blue +15.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dylan BudkaTargetCesar Almeida

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
21
72% acc · 72%
1
100% acc · 100%
Body
7
88% acc · 24%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

1
20% acc · 100%
Distance
7
64% acc · 24%
0
Clinch
19
90% acc · 66%
0
Ground
3
50% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Dylan Budka rounds
0
even
1
Cesar Almeida rounds
Round 1Dylan Budka edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns2
Control4:32
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Cesar Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control1:21
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 5
Sig Strikes
29 / 38
25%
Sig Str %
63.5%
6 / 11
Total Strikes
87 / 101
3 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:53
Ctrl Time
0:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cesar Almeida1 / 243 / 460 / 00
1Dylan Budka1 / 26 / 82 / 40
2Cesar Almeida28 / 3644 / 550 / 00
2Dylan Budka0 / 30 / 31 / 20

Dylan Budka

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3

Cesar Almeida

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6