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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sam Alvey won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1355

Elo1431

Dylan AndrewsvsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · Friday, November 7, 2014Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:16

Style matchupDylan Andrews: WrestlervsSam Alvey: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Dylan Andrews has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Sam Alvey has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Dylan Andrews (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Dylan Andrews

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1355

Elo

1431

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dylan AndrewsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jimmy Quinlan · Apr 13

KOvs Papy Abedi · Aug 13

KOvs Clint Hester · Dec 13

SUBvs Bradley Scott · May 15

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dylan AndrewsMetricSam Alvey

2.21

Strikes / min

3.28

2.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

46%

Strike defense

52%

2.83

TDs / 15 min

0.06

57%

Takedown defense

82%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dylan AndrewsSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dylan Andrews(5 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -75.9|Blue +75.9

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +253.0|Blue -253.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dylan AndrewsTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

Head

86% acc · 100%

50% acc · 25%

Body

60% acc · 75%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 17%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 83%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dylan Andrews rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Dylan Andrews edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control1:21

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 7

Sig Strikes

6 / 7

57%

Sig Str %

85%

12 / 15

Total Strikes

9 / 10

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sam Alvey	6 / 7	9 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Dylan Andrews	4 / 7	12 / 15	2 / 3	0

Dylan Andrews

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23