← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dylan Andrews won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1355

Elo1490

Dylan AndrewsvsPapy AbediUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · Wednesday, August 28, 2013Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Dylan Andrews won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:32

Style matchupDylan Andrews: WrestlervsPapy Abedi: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Papy Abedi wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Dylan Andrews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Papy Abedi at +285 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dylan Andrews enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dylan Andrews (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Dylan Andrews

Red Corner

Papy Abedi

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dylan AndrewsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jimmy Quinlan · Apr 13

KOvs Clint Hester · Dec 13

KOvs Sam Alvey · Nov 14

SUBvs Bradley Scott · May 15

latest

Papy Abedi

oldest →

SUBvs Thiago Alves · Nov 11

SUBvs James Head · Apr 12

vs Besam Yousef · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dylan AndrewsMetricPapy Abedi

2.21

Strikes / min

2.80

2.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

46%

Strike defense

48%

2.83

TDs / 15 min

3.47

57%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dylan AndrewsPapy Abedi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dylan Andrews(5 fights)Papy Abedi(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.6|Blue +135.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dylan AndrewsTargetPapy Abedi

By target zone

34% acc · 60%

Head

43% acc · 63%

100% acc · 20%

Body

56% acc · 26%

67% acc · 20%

Leg

67% acc · 11%

By position

37% acc · 65%

Distance

37% acc · 58%

75% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 20%

Ground

80% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dylan Andrews rounds

even

Papy Abedi rounds

Round 1Papy Abedi edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control0:29

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:50Control

Round 2Papy Abedi edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:38

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 3Dylan Andrews edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:03

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 45

Sig Strikes

19 / 40

33.3%

Sig Str %

49.3%

21 / 46

Total Strikes

27 / 48

2 / 5

TDs

3 / 5

33%

TD %

37.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

5:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Papy Abedi	8 / 14	8 / 14	3 / 4	1
1	Dylan Andrews	0 / 5	0 / 5	2 / 3	0
2	Papy Abedi	10 / 24	15 / 29	0 / 0	2
2	Dylan Andrews	10 / 20	11 / 21	0 / 2	0
3	Papy Abedi	1 / 2	4 / 5	0 / 1	0
3	Dylan Andrews	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 0	0

Dylan Andrews

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Papy Abedi

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights4