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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Stoltzfus won · U-DEC R3

Elo1430

Elo1486

Dwight GrantvsDustin StoltzfusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 16, 2022Elmont, New York, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Stoltzfus won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDwight Grant: Well-roundedvsDustin Stoltzfus: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Dustin Stoltzfus wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Dustin Stoltzfus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Stoltzfus at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dwight Grant has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dwight Grant has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dwight Grant (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Dwight Grant

Red Corner

Dustin Stoltzfus

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1430

Elo

1486

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dwight GrantL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alan Jouban · Apr 19

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 20

vs Stefan Sekulic · Apr 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Oct 21

KOvs Sergey Khandozhko · Apr 22

latest

Dustin StoltzfusL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dwight GrantMetricDustin Stoltzfus

3.29

Strikes / min

3.30

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

60%

Strike defense

47%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

2.08

66%

Takedown defense

46%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.63evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dwight GrantDustin Stoltzfus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dwight Grant(8 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dwight GrantTargetDustin Stoltzfus

By target zone

44% acc · 67%

Head

28% acc · 47%

78% acc · 13%

Body

88% acc · 14%

83% acc · 19%

Leg

83% acc · 39%

By position

52% acc · 96%

Distance

40% acc · 71%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 6%

Ground

55% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dwight Grant rounds

even

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

Round 1Dwight Grant edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:51Control

Round 3Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 100

Sig Strikes

49 / 112

51.7%

Sig Str %

43%

54 / 102

Total Strikes

102 / 173

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	17 / 43	17 / 43	0 / 1
1	Dwight Grant	23 / 35	23 / 35	0 / 0
2	Dustin Stoltzfus	20 / 38	31 / 52	1 / 2
2	Dwight Grant	14 / 28	16 / 30	0 / 0
3	Dustin Stoltzfus	12 / 31	54 / 78	1 / 2
3	Dwight Grant	15 / 37	15 / 37	0 / 0

Dwight Grant

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10