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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB R3

Elo1486

Elo1457

Dustin StoltzfusvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:58

Style matchupDustin Stoltzfus: WrestlervsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Gerald Meerschaert wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gerald Meerschaert at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Stoltzfus

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1486

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin StoltzfusL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin StoltzfusMetricGerald Meerschaert

3.30

Strikes / min

2.95

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

47%

Strike defense

53%

2.08

TDs / 15 min

1.70

46%

Takedown defense

40%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin StoltzfusGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin StoltzfusTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

29% acc · 67%

Head

42% acc · 73%

100% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 27%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

29% acc · 58%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

71% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:21

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:03Control

Round 2Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:56

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control1:10

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 32

Sig Strikes

11 / 22

36.7%

Sig Str %

61.7%

51 / 72

Total Strikes

19 / 30

4 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:27

Ctrl Time

3:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	4 / 5	7 / 8	1 / 1	1
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	5 / 11	24 / 30	1 / 1	0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	4 / 5	7 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Stoltzfus	5 / 11	24 / 30	1 / 1	1
3	Gerald Meerschaert	3 / 12	5 / 14	0 / 0	2
3	Dustin Stoltzfus	2 / 10	3 / 12	2 / 2	0

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25