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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1403

Dustin PoiriervsYancy MedeirosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · Saturday, June 6, 2015New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:38

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsYancy Medeiros: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Yancy Medeiros has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Yancy Medeiros threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Yancy Medeiros

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1494

Elo

1403

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Yancy MedeirosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19

vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricYancy Medeiros

5.24

Strikes / min

4.36

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

52%

Strike defense

47%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.33

64%

Takedown defense

73%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierYancy Medeiros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +90.9|Blue -90.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -113.0|Blue +113.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetYancy Medeiros

By target zone

74% acc · 93%

Head

50% acc · 83%

100% acc · 4%

Body

33% acc · 17%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

69% acc · 33%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

75% acc · 56%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Yancy Medeiros rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:00

Knockdowns2

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:28Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 36

Sig Strikes

6 / 13

75%

Sig Str %

46%

36 / 46

Total Strikes

6 / 13

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yancy Medeiros	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Poirier	27 / 36	36 / 46	1 / 2	1

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14