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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · SUB R2

Elo1494

Elo1490

Dustin PoiriervsPablo GarzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · Saturday, November 12, 2011Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:32

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsPablo Garza: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Poirier has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Pablo Garza

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1494

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Pablo Garza

oldest →

KOvs Fredson Paixao · Dec 10

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Apr 11

vs Dennis Bermudez · May 12

vs Mark Hominick · Nov 12

SUBvs Diego Brandao · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricPablo Garza

5.24

Strikes / min

3.37

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

52%

Strike defense

50%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.94

64%

Takedown defense

15%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierPablo Garza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Pablo Garza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetPablo Garza

By target zone

34% acc · 82%

Head

8% acc · 7%

33% acc · 6%

Body

50% acc · 36%

67% acc · 12%

Leg

67% acc · 57%

By position

33% acc · 53%

Distance

46% acc · 93%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

17% acc · 7%

29% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Pablo Garza rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:50

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:05

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 47

Sig Strikes

14 / 34

38.5%

Sig Str %

24%

31 / 63

Total Strikes

24 / 44

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:55

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pablo Garza	14 / 29	18 / 33	0 / 1	1
1	Dustin Poirier	14 / 40	25 / 53	1 / 1	0
2	Pablo Garza	0 / 5	6 / 11	0 / 1	0
2	Dustin Poirier	3 / 7	6 / 10	0 / 0	1

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Pablo Garza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6