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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Michael Johnson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Elo1502
Michael Johnson

Dustin PoiriervsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · Saturday, September 17, 2016Hidalgo, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:35

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michael Johnson has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier
Red Corner
VS
Michael Johnson
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
1494
Elo
1502
37
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23
W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24
L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24
L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25
latest
Michael Johnson
oldest →
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23
W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24
W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24
W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricMichael Johnson
5.24
Strikes / min
4.27
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
52%
Strike defense
58%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
0.57
64%
Takedown defense
81%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1629 vs 1543Strikes42.9 vs 46.4Takedowns1.1 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.00Form0.9 vs -0.3
Dustin PoirierMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -8.7|Blue +8.7
Recent Form
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -168.0|Blue +168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

4
44% acc · 67%
Head
10
38% acc · 71%
0
Body
1
17% acc · 7%
2
67% acc · 33%
Leg
3
60% acc · 21%

By position

6
50% acc · 100%
Distance
10
31% acc · 71%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
4
80% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Dustin Poirier rounds
0
even
1
Michael Johnson rounds
Round 1Michael Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 12
Sig Strikes
14 / 37
50%
Sig Str %
37%
6 / 12
Total Strikes
14 / 37
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michael Johnson14 / 3714 / 370 / 00
1Dustin Poirier6 / 126 / 120 / 00

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32