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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · SUB R3

Elo1494

Elo1454

Dustin PoiriervsMichael ChandlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:00

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsMichael Chandler: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chandler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Michael Chandler has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Michael Chandler

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1494

Elo

1454

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Michael ChandlerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21

KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22

vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24

KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricMichael Chandler

5.24

Strikes / min

4.04

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

52%

Strike defense

43%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

1.96

64%

Takedown defense

61%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierMichael Chandler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Michael Chandler(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.7|Blue -39.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetMichael Chandler

By target zone

48% acc · 89%

Head

40% acc · 74%

100% acc · 5%

Body

59% acc · 23%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

33% acc · 2%

By position

48% acc · 84%

Distance

33% acc · 58%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

73% acc · 37%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Michael Chandler rounds

Round 1Michael Chandler edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Michael Chandler edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:34Control

Round 3Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:47

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 76

Sig Strikes

43 / 100

55%

Sig Str %

46%

63 / 105

Total Strikes

65 / 135

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

5:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Chandler	23 / 69	24 / 73	2 / 4	0
1	Dustin Poirier	28 / 57	31 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Michael Chandler	18 / 25	39 / 56	1 / 1	0
2	Dustin Poirier	2 / 3	23 / 25	0 / 0	0
3	Michael Chandler	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 2	0
3	Dustin Poirier	8 / 16	9 / 19	0 / 0	2

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Michael Chandler

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7