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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · SUB R1

Elo1494

Elo1517

Dustin PoiriervsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:23

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -515 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Max Holloway

Blue Corner

-515

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+445

(18%)

1494

Elo

1517

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricMax Holloway

5.24

Strikes / min

6.91

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

52%

Strike defense

58%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.23

64%

Takedown defense

81%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.7|Blue +23.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -46.7|Blue +46.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

32% acc · 55%

Head

31% acc · 73%

0% acc

Body

40% acc · 18%

100% acc · 45%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

33% acc · 64%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Max Holloway rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:28

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 25

Sig Strikes

11 / 32

44%

Sig Str %

34%

15 / 29

Total Strikes

11 / 32

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Max Holloway	11 / 32	11 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Poirier	11 / 25	15 / 29	1 / 3	3

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33