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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1494

Elo1541

Dustin PoiriervsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:00

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Gaethje at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Justin Gaethje

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1494

Elo

1541

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricJustin Gaethje

5.24

Strikes / min

6.48

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

7.05

52%

Strike defense

51%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.33

64%

Takedown defense

74%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierJustin Gaethje

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -46.8|Blue +46.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

46% acc · 78%

Head

48% acc · 56%

100% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

51% acc · 93%

Distance

60% acc · 93%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Justin Gaethje rounds

Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 52

Sig Strikes

41 / 66

26%

Sig Str %

69%

27 / 52

Total Strikes

41 / 66

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Gaethje	33 / 56	33 / 56	0 / 0
1	Dustin Poirier	27 / 51	27 / 51	0 / 0
2	Justin Gaethje	8 / 10	8 / 10	0 / 0
2	Dustin Poirier	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15