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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1494

Elo1541

Dustin PoiriervsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 0:33

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Justin Gaethje

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1494

Elo

1541

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricJustin Gaethje

5.24

Strikes / min

6.48

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

7.05

52%

Strike defense

51%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.33

64%

Takedown defense

74%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierJustin Gaethje

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -46.8|Blue +46.8

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

142

45% acc · 82%

Head

39% acc · 49%

81% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 8%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

88% acc · 43%

By position

162

48% acc · 93%

Distance

51% acc · 85%

92% acc · 7%

Clinch

94% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Justin Gaethje rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes63

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:05

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 4Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:01

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

174 / 351

Sig Strikes

115 / 212

54.8%

Sig Str %

48%

179 / 357

Total Strikes

116 / 213

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Gaethje	34 / 64	34 / 64	0 / 0
1	Dustin Poirier	63 / 132	63 / 132	0 / 0
2	Dustin Poirier	55 / 122	58 / 125	0 / 3
2	Justin Gaethje	46 / 85	46 / 85	0 / 0
3	Justin Gaethje	33 / 55	34 / 56	0 / 0
3	Dustin Poirier	38 / 73	40 / 76	0 / 2
4	Justin Gaethje	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0
4	Dustin Poirier	18 / 24	18 / 24	0 / 0

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15