Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1352

Dustin PoiriervsJosh GrispiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 125: Resolution · Saturday, January 1, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsJosh Grispi: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Josh Grispi wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Grispi at -300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Grispi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dustin Poirier has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Josh Grispi

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1494

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Josh GrispiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs George Roop · Jun 11

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 12

vs Andy Ogle · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricJosh Grispi

5.24

Strikes / min

1.44

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

52%

Strike defense

50%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

1.97

64%

Takedown defense

16%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 2.94 — meaningful gap-2.27

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Josh Grispi(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +141.8|Blue -141.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetJosh Grispi

By target zone

46% acc · 71%

Head

26% acc · 44%

69% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 31%

92% acc · 14%

Leg

67% acc · 25%

By position

54% acc · 38%

Distance

37% acc · 69%

50% acc · 53%

Clinch

36% acc · 25%

58% acc · 9%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Josh Grispi rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control2:36

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control3:33

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:39

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 148

Sig Strikes

16 / 43

51.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

106 / 181

Total Strikes

35 / 63

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

19.3%

Sub Att

Rev

7:48

Ctrl Time

2:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Grispi	10 / 28	15 / 33	0 / 2	1
1	Dustin Poirier	38 / 70	50 / 84	0 / 0	0
2	Josh Grispi	1 / 8	5 / 13	1 / 4	1
2	Dustin Poirier	25 / 51	38 / 66	0 / 0	0
3	Josh Grispi	5 / 7	15 / 17	1 / 3	0
3	Dustin Poirier	14 / 27	18 / 31	0 / 0	0

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Josh Grispi

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4