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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · SUB R1

Elo1494

Elo1352

Dustin PoiriervsJonathan BrookinsUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:15

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsJonathan Brookins: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jonathan Brookins has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Jonathan Brookins

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+248

(29%)

1494

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Jonathan Brookins

oldest →

vs Michael Johnson · Dec 10

vs Erik Koch · Sep 11

KOvs Vagner Rocha · Feb 12

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricJonathan Brookins

5.24

Strikes / min

2.69

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

52%

Strike defense

56%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

1.94

64%

Takedown defense

80%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierJonathan Brookins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Jonathan Brookins(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +141.9|Blue -141.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +17.0|Blue -17.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetJonathan Brookins

By target zone

43% acc · 80%

Head

43% acc · 77%

80% acc · 11%

Body

86% acc · 23%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

0% acc

By position

38% acc · 37%

Distance

46% acc · 46%

56% acc · 63%

Clinch

50% acc · 54%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Jonathan Brookins rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control1:09

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 73

Sig Strikes

26 / 54

47%

Sig Str %

48%

38 / 76

Total Strikes

26 / 54

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:09

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jonathan Brookins	26 / 54	26 / 54	0 / 2	0
1	Dustin Poirier	35 / 73	38 / 76	0 / 2	1

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Jonathan Brookins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5