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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1386

Dustin PoiriervsJoe DuffyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsJoe Duffy: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joe Duffy threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Joe Duffy

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1494

Elo

1386

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Joe DuffyL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16

vs Reza Madadi · Mar 17

KOvs James Vick · Nov 17

vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricJoe Duffy

5.24

Strikes / min

2.68

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.96

64%

Takedown defense

64%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierJoe Duffy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Joe Duffy(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +107.3|Blue -107.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetJoe Duffy

By target zone

48% acc · 81%

Head

32% acc · 78%

88% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 19%

88% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

43% acc · 46%

Distance

32% acc · 73%

60% acc · 17%

Clinch

62% acc · 22%

68% acc · 38%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Joe Duffy rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control1:37

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control4:22

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control3:23

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 137

Sig Strikes

37 / 100

53%

Sig Str %

31.7%

88 / 153

Total Strikes

60 / 123

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:22

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Duffy	25 / 63	33 / 71	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Poirier	37 / 77	38 / 78	1 / 3	0
2	Joe Duffy	2 / 11	6 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Poirier	25 / 39	36 / 50	1 / 2	0
3	Joe Duffy	10 / 26	21 / 37	0 / 0	1
3	Dustin Poirier	10 / 21	14 / 25	2 / 2	0

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Joe Duffy

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8