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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · M-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1516

Dustin PoiriervsJim MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · Saturday, February 11, 2017Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsJim Miller: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jim Miller threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
Dustin Poirier has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Jim Miller

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1494

Elo

1516

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricJim Miller

5.24

Strikes / min

2.92

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

52%

Strike defense

56%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

1.49

64%

Takedown defense

47%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierJim Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Jim Miller(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.4|Blue +22.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetJim Miller

By target zone

42% acc · 81%

Head

37% acc · 51%

71% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 28%

50% acc · 8%

Leg

88% acc · 21%

By position

43% acc · 82%

Distance

47% acc · 79%

62% acc · 13%

Clinch

87% acc · 18%

40% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Jim Miller rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:31

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns1

Control0:41

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control2:46

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

97 / 216

Sig Strikes

71 / 135

43.7%

Sig Str %

52.7%

122 / 243

Total Strikes

83 / 150

3 / 3

TDs

1 / 6

100%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:58

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jim Miller	22 / 54	24 / 57	1 / 2	0
1	Dustin Poirier	30 / 70	34 / 74	0 / 0	0
2	Jim Miller	33 / 52	36 / 55	0 / 2	0
2	Dustin Poirier	51 / 108	58 / 115	1 / 1	0
3	Jim Miller	16 / 29	23 / 38	0 / 2	3
3	Dustin Poirier	16 / 38	30 / 54	2 / 2	0

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40