Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1490

Dustin PoiriervsJason YoungUFC Prediction Result

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · Saturday, June 11, 2011Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsJason Young: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Jason Young

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1494

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Jason Young

oldest →

vs Michihiro Omigawa · Nov 11

vs Eric Wisely · Apr 12

KOvs Robert Peralta · Sep 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricJason Young

5.24

Strikes / min

2.97

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

52%

Strike defense

50%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

1.98

64%

Takedown defense

55%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierJason Young

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Jason Young(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetJason Young

By target zone

46% acc · 73%

Head

20% acc · 42%

100% acc · 8%

Body

80% acc · 28%

88% acc · 19%

Leg

85% acc · 30%

By position

52% acc · 91%

Distance

30% acc · 77%

64% acc · 9%

Clinch

80% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Jason Young rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:47

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:25

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control3:28

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 146

Sig Strikes

57 / 161

51.7%

Sig Str %

36.3%

84 / 154

Total Strikes

102 / 208

5 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

80.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:40

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jason Young	19 / 57	27 / 66	0 / 0
1	Dustin Poirier	36 / 68	40 / 72	1 / 1
2	Jason Young	25 / 74	25 / 74	0 / 0
2	Dustin Poirier	33 / 62	35 / 64	1 / 1
3	Jason Young	13 / 30	50 / 68	0 / 0
3	Dustin Poirier	8 / 16	9 / 18	3 / 7

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Jason Young

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4