← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1489

Dustin PoiriervsDiego FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · Saturday, April 4, 2015Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:45

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Diego Ferreira has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Diego Ferreira

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1494

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricDiego Ferreira

5.24

Strikes / min

4.70

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

52%

Strike defense

55%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.82

64%

Takedown defense

57%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking+1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierDiego Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.0|Blue -5.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetDiego Ferreira

By target zone

44% acc · 83%

Head

26% acc · 60%

50% acc · 4%

Body

71% acc · 25%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

49% acc · 83%

Distance

31% acc · 80%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

43% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Diego Ferreira rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:46

Knockdowns2

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 50

Sig Strikes

20 / 56

48%

Sig Str %

35%

29 / 56

Total Strikes

20 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Ferreira	20 / 56	20 / 56	0 / 2	0
1	Dustin Poirier	24 / 50	29 / 56	0 / 0	0

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17