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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Elo1490
Diego Brandao

Dustin PoiriervsDiego BrandaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · Saturday, December 28, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:54

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsDiego Brandao: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Diego Brandao has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Diego Brandao has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Diego Brandao has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
  • Dustin Poirier has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier
Red Corner
VS
Diego Brandao
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
1494
Elo
1490
37
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
182.88 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23
W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24
L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24
L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25
latest
Diego Brandao
oldest →
W
vs Daniel Pineda · Aug 13
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14
W
KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15
W
KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15
L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricDiego Brandao
5.24
Strikes / min
2.94
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.38
52%
Strike defense
62%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
3.21
64%
Takedown defense
80%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1556 vs 1547Strikes48.1 vs 25.2Takedowns1.4 vs 2.4Sub Atts0.88 vs 0.40Form0.3 vs 0.8
Dustin PoirierDiego Brandao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Diego Brandao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.3|Blue -3.3
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetDiego Brandao

By target zone

27
42% acc · 61%
Head
10
28% acc · 63%
7
70% acc · 16%
Body
4
40% acc · 25%
10
83% acc · 23%
Leg
2
100% acc · 13%

By position

23
43% acc · 52%
Distance
14
33% acc · 88%
15
65% acc · 34%
Clinch
1
25% acc · 6%
6
60% acc · 14%
Ground
1
100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Dustin Poirier rounds
0
even
0
Diego Brandao rounds
Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control0:33
Knockdowns1
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:13Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
44 / 87
Sig Strikes
16 / 48
50%
Sig Str %
33%
48 / 94
Total Strikes
17 / 49
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:33
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Diego Brandao16 / 4817 / 491 / 20
1Dustin Poirier44 / 8748 / 940 / 00

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights10